Agricultural Prospect Reports

1. Agricultural Prospect Report  (May 2011)
2. Agricultural Prospect Report  (May_11_Up 2011)
3. Agricultural Prospect Report (December 2010)
4. Agricultural Prospect Report (May 2009)
5. Agricultural Prospect Report (Sep 2009)
6. Agricultural Prospect Report (19 August 2009)
7. Agricultural Prospect Report (Oct 2008)
8. Agricultural Prospect Report (July 2008)
9. Agricultural Prospect Report (May 2007)
10. Agricultural Prospect Report (Sep 2007)
11. Agricultural Prospect Report (April 2006)
12. Agricultural Prospect Report (June 2006)
13. Agricultural Prospect Report (Sep 2006)
14. Agricultural Prospect Report (Oct 2006)
15. Agricultural Prospect Report (November 2006)
16. Agricultural Prospect Report (Dec 2006)
17. Agricultural Prospect Report (March 2005)
18. Agricultural Prospect Report (May 2005)
19. Agricultural Prospect Report (July 2005)
20. Agricultural Prospect Report (Oct 2005)
21. Agricultural Prospect Report (Dec 2005)

 

Thursday, 19 August 2010

Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock

General Department of Policy and Planning

Statistics and Marketing Information Office

Updated Agriculture and Livestock Conditions

 

Cereal production, requirement and deficit

This report provides updated information on the cereal production, requirement and surplus/deficit provided in May, based on latest information and data. May estimates were based on certain assumptions on the production levels of maize and paddy, which were not yet planted at that time. The estimate mirrors the updated and more reliable estimates of yield prospects of maize and paddy. To summarize, overall domestic production of cereal is estimated to be 5,690,000 tons. It is 30,000 tons lower than the level reported in May (5,720,000 tons).

 

Average annual cereal production of Afghanistan is 5.2 million tons. Overall cereal production in 2010 is estimated to be 10% below the last year’s level, but 11% higher than the average level. The production consists of 4,532,000 tons of wheat (80% of total cereal production), 440,000 tons of rice (8%), 281 tons of maize (5%) and 437,000 tons of barley (7%).

 

Total cereal requirement in 2010 is estimated at 6,453,000 tonnes. The cereal deficit in 2010 is estimated at 763,000 tons, which includes 700,000 tonnes of wheat and 63,000 tonnes of rice. (Table 4) The deficit in 2010 will have three components as usual: commercial import (which conventionally covers about a three-fourth of deficit), imported food aid, and uncovered deficit.

 

Table 1: The 2010 Cereal Balance Sheet (‘000 tonnes)

(August 2010)

 

Crop	Requirements					Domestic production	Surplus/ Deficit
	Food	Seed	Feed	Loss	Total
Irrigated wheat		201	--	462		3,082
Rainfed wheat		111	--	218		1,450
All wheat	4,240	312	0	680	5,232	4,532	-700
Rice	450	21	0	32	503	440	-63
Maize	53	8	175	45	281	281	--
Barley	26	30	315	66	437	437	--
Total	4,769	371	490	823	6,453	5,690	-763

 

The average price of local wheat in provincial markets in July 2010 was Afs 13.5/Kg. There was only a very tiny movement in the price of local wheat in the last four months. The average price of imported flour in June/July was Afs 18.5/kg, which is 14% down compared to its last year’s price of Afs 21.4/kg in the same period.(Annex II)

 

Wheat price in international markets from the second half of July up to mid-August shows considerable increase, mirroring strong, growing evidences of below normal production prospects in some of the main wheat-producing countries.

 

Given above, international price of wheat is very likely to soar in 2010. Furthermore, following will have direct adverse impact on cereal supply in Afghanistan:

 

• lower level of supply of cereals in the international market,
• their price increases, and
• likely imposition on export of cereals by prospective exporters  

 

Measures are to be taken otherwise uncovered deficit will widen.

Annex I: Agriculture and Livestock Conditions in individual Provinces

 

Northern Region

 

1. Faryab:

• Second season crops are in good conditions and their production prospects are good.
• Virtually there is no damage or animal loss due to floods.
• The price of imported wheat flour has increased (50 kg wheat flour = 1050 Afghani).

 

2. Jawzjan:

• Crops are in good condition in the second season. Production prospects of main crops are quite good.
• No damage due to floods.
• No reported case of specific problems so far.
• The price of imported wheat flour is 21 Afg/kg, which reflects a very little change in the price of imported wheat flour.

 

3. Sar-e-pul

• Maize, paddy and vegetables are in good conditions.
• Flood destroyed 3120 jerib agricultural land and 280 jerib orchards.
• The price of wheat flour increased from 19 to 20 Afghani/kg.

 

4. Balkh:

• Paddy, maize and vegetables are in normally good conditions.
• There were no floods in Balkh that damaged crops. However, some land areas were adversely affected due to river overflow in Shortapah district.

 

5. Samangan:

• Standing crops are in good growing stage.
• No reported case of crop damage or animal death due to floods.

 

North-East Region

 

6. Baghlan:

• Crops are in good growing conditions and stages.
• Floods destroyed about 20 – 30 jerib agricultural lands.
• There is no animal loss due to the floods.
• The price of wheat flour is 1050 – 1100 Afg/kg.
• Agriculture in general is in good condition.

 

7. Kunduz:

• Second season crops are in good conditions so far.
• No floods so far.
• Not much change in the price of wheat and wheat flour.
• Agriculture prospects are quite good.

 

8. Takhar:

• Crops are in good conditions in the second crop season. Paddy, maize and vegetables are in good growing stage.
• No flood so far.
• The price of imported wheat is 1150 Afghani/bag.
• This province is comfortably surplus in crop production as the production prospects of standing crop are also good.

 

9. Badakhshan:

• Second season crops (paddy, maize and vegetables) are in normal comditions.
• Overflow of the river destroyed 250 jerib lands.
• Water levels increased in Worduj district.

 

Western Region

 

10.  Hirat:

• Second season crops are in good growing stages/conditions.
• No animal death, no rainfall, no flood and no damage so far.
• The price of imported wheat is 23 Afghani/kg. The price of wheat is expected to rise in the coming months.
• Agriculture is in good condition and crops are in good growing stage.
• There is a shortage of water.

 

11. Farah:

• Good second seasonal cultivation.
• No flood damage in this province.
• Water levels in the rivers have receded.
• Prices of wheat and flour are low.
• Overall agriculture situation is normal.

 

12. Badghis:

• Second crop season crops such as maize and vegetables are in good conditions.
• No flood damage.

 

West-Central Region

 

13. Ghor:

• Second season crops damaged by floods in some areas and reductions in their yield is expected.
• The prices of wheat and wheat flour increased in the last few days.
• Agriculture prospect is generally good.

 

14. Bamyan:

• Second season crops damaged by floods and reduction in their yield is expected.
• Floods destroyed 50 orchards (100 jerib lands) and 2000 jerib of agricultural lands.
• Floods killed 50 animals.
• The prices of wheat and wheat flour increased in the last few days.
• Agriculture prospect is generally good.

 

Central Region

 

15. Kabul:

• Prospects of second season crops are good so far.
• Floods adversely affected about 4875 jerib agricultural lands and orchards.
• Floods killed 102 animals.
• The price of local wheat increased.

 

16. Parwan:

• Crops condition is good in the second crop season. Maize and paddy are growing well.
• Flood destroyed 2625 jerib agricultural land and considerable number of fruit-bearing and other fruit trees.
• Rainfalls and the resulting excessive moisture damaged some vegetables and fruits (grapes) in some areas.
• Floods killed 178 animals.
• The price of wheat flour has increased.

17. Panjshir

• Conditions of the second season crops are good so far.
• Floods destroyed 40 jerib agricultural lands, 12 water intakes and 40 mini-power producer intakes.
• The prices of wheat and wheat flour have increased in the last few days.
• Overall agriculture prospects are good.

 

18. Kapisa:

• About 14530 jerib agricultural land and 149000 fruitful and unfruitful trees have been destroyed by floods. It destroyed 50 intakes.
• The floods damaged areas grown with maize, paddy and vegetables. It killed about 675 animals.
• Farmers are requesting for timely assistance.

 

19. Logar

• Production prospects of the second season crops (maize and vegetables) are not good because of the floods.
• About (10,000) jerib agricultural land and orchards destroyed and 300 animals died.
• Farmers are looking forward to assistance.

 

20. Wardak:

• Vegetables, orchards, and some part of harvested wheat have been damaged by floods.
• Floods destroyed 50938 jerib lands in Nerkh centre, Said Abad, Daimirdad and Chack districts. It killed 2254 animals.
• The price of wheat and flour has increased.

 

Southern Region

 

21. Paktia:

• The condition for second season cultivation is not good because of heavy rainfalls followed by floods.
• Floods damaged more than 2000 jerib agricultural land.
• Floods killed 980 animals
• The prices of wheat and wheat flour have increased in the last few days.
• Production prospects of the second season crops are not good because of floods.

 

22. Paktika:

• Agriculture second seasonal cultivation is good so far.
• Fungus disease in potatoes will reduce its production level.
• Floods destroyed 100 hectare agricultural lands and orchards, 25 deep and shallow wells and water pumps.
• No reported case of animal death so far.
• The price of wheat has increased.
• Overall agriculture prospects are good.

 

23. Khost:

• Crops in second season (maize and vegetables) are in good conditions.
• The floods destroyed 750 jerib of agricultural lands and fruitful orchards. It killed 100 – 150 animals.
• No change in the price of wheat and flour.
• Latest rainfalls revived the crops.

 

24. Ghazni

• Flood destroyed about 5445 jerib agricultural land and 44156 trees.
• About 74 Karez, 249 intakes, 51 springs and 50 km water canals have been damaged.
• Second season cultivation in some areas are not good because of floods.
• Farmers and herders need assistance.

 

Eastern Region

 

25. Nangarhar:

• Overall agriculture prospect is good.
• Paddy, maize and vegetables are in good condition.
• Floods destroyed one Karez, 44 water-intake and 1300 jerib agricultural lands in Chapliar, Chaperhar, Surkhroad and Khugiany districts.

 

26. Laghman:

• Flood severely damaged paddy, maize and vegetables
• One main bridge and (82) canals have been destroyed.
• Around 5000 jerib land and 200 jerib orchards have been destroyed.
• Wheat and flour prices have increased.

 

27. Kunarha:

• The floods have adversely affected production prospects of the second season crops.
• It adversely affected 8555 jerib and completely destroyed 2400 jerib of agricultural lands. It killed 980 animals.
• An increase in the price of wheat and wheat flour is expected.

 

28. Nooristan:

• Crops are in good conditions, but rainfalls and cloudy weather will delay the harvest.
• Floods destroyed 100 jerib agricultural land and 1000 jerib agricultural cultivated land.
• Floods killed 50 cattle.
• Wheat price has increased in the past few days.
• On the whole, good harvest is forecasted.

 

South-Western Region

 

29. Kandahar:

• Crops are in good conditions.
• No animal death, no rainfall, no flood and no damage so far.
• The prices of wheat and wheat flour show increasing trend.
• Agriculture is in good condition.

30. Helmand:

• Crops are in good condition in the second season.
• Production prospect of Maize and vegetables are very good.
• No rainfall, no flood and no animal death.
• Prices of local wheat and imported wheat flour are expected to increase.
• There is sufficient water. No specific problem so far.
• Agriculture prospects are quite good.

 

31. Zabul

• The floods destroyed about 160 Karez, 36 canals and 500 jerib of agricultural lands and damaged some vineyards. It killed 322 animals.
• Farmers are looking forward to outside assistance.

 

32. Nimroz:

• Standing crops are in good conditions and there is no specific problem so far.
• No rainfalls and no floods so far. No animal losses.
• An increase in the price of wheat and flour is expected.
• Agriculture is in good condition.

 

33. Uruzgan:

• Crops are in good condition so far.
• No floods.
• The price of wheat and wheat flour is expected to increase.
• Good forecast for agriculture.

 

34. Daikundy:

• Second season crops are not in good conditions. Their production prospects are below average level.
• Floods destroyed 7200 jerib agricultural lands. No reports of animal death due to floods.
• The price of wheat and wheat flour has increased in the last 10 days.

Annex II: Price of local wheat (Afs/Kg) in various regions in the last four months

 

Region	Jul 2009   (Afs)	Jun 2010   (Afs)	Jul 2010   (Afs)	Aug 2010   (Afs)	% Change in price in Jul 2010
					On Jun 10	On Jul 09
North	14.6	11.4	11.2	11.1	-1.8	-23.3
North-East	13.8	13.0	11.3	12.4	-13.5	-18.2
West	12.7	9.3	10.0	10.5	7.1	-21.1
West-Central	21.0	13.0	12.0	12.0	-7.7	-42.9
Central	16.5	13.7	14.5	14.5	6.1	-12.1
South	18.0	15.8	16.5	15.5	4.8	-8.3
East	18.0	15.5	16.0	15.1	3.2	-11.1
South-West	18.2	15.0	14.3	14.7	-4.4	-21.1
Overall	16.5	13.5	13.5	13.5	-0.4	-18.2

 

Annex III: Retail market prices of agricultural commodity (Afs/Kg.) in July 2010

 

Commodity	Region	Reporting month	Previous Month	Last year same month	% change on
					Last month	Last year same month
		(i.e. Jul 10)	(i.e. Jun 10)	(i.e. Jul 09)	(Jun 10)	(Jul 09)
Wheat	North	11.2	11.4	14.6	-1.8	-23.3
Wheat	North-East	11.3	13.0	13.8	-13.5	-18.2
Wheat	West	10.0	9.3	12.7	7.1	-21.1
Wheat	West-Central	12.0	13.0	21.0	-7.7	-42.9
Wheat	Central	14.5	13.7	16.5	6.1	-12.1
Wheat	South	16.5	15.8	18.0	4.8	-8.3
Wheat	East	16.0	15.5	18.0	3.2	-11.1
Wheat	South-West	14.3	15.0	18.2	-4.4	-21.1
Wheat	Overall	13.5	13.5	16.5	-0.4	-18.2
Beef	Overall	164.1	164.2	141.8	-0.1	15.7
Mutton	Overall	236.8	232.7	189.3	1.7	25.0
Chicken	Overall	102.0	105.8	102.8	-3.6	-0.7
Agri. Labor	Overall	277.6	281.6	226.8	-1.4	22.4
Urea	Overall	17.2	17.5	17.9	-1.9	-3.9
DAP	Overall	35.5	37.0	36.5	-3.9	-2.6

 

Prices Price (Afs/kg) of wheat, beef and mutton on the 13^th August 2010

 

Commodity	Region	Wheat	Beef	Mutton
Wheat	North	11.1	174.0	224.0
Wheat	North-East	12.4	177.5	240.0
Wheat	West	10.5	166.7	266.7
Wheat	West-Central	12.0	170.0	210.0
Wheat	Central	14.5	176.7	246.7
Wheat	South	15.5	155.5	255.3
Wheat	East	15.1	149.0	207.3
Wheat	South-West	14.7	172.5	260.0
Wheat	Overall	13.5	168.6	240.9

 

Wholesale market price of wheat in Peshawar (Rs/40 Kg.)

 

Aug 2010	Jul 2010	Jun 2010	May 2010	Apr 2010
920	940	1,000	1,000	1,002

 

Price of wheat in the international market, 2008-2010

Description	Wheat fob prices (US$/tonne)
	Argentinaup river	US Hard Red Winter (HRW)	US Soft Red Winter (SRW)
Average price in 2008	288.80	344.42	268.17
Average price in 2009	218.75	235.58	185.67
Average price in 2010	226.75	208.25	200.75
% change in price in 2010 on 2009	3.7	-11.6	8.1